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Retail Inflation Eases Sharply in September: What Experts Say
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Star Live 24
Tuesday, October 14, 2014
Published On: 14:32:57 PM
: India's annual consumer price inflation eased for a second straight month in September to 6.46 per cent, its lowest level since the government started releasing the data in 2012, data showed on Monday.
The latest number was sharply lower than a NU poll forecast of 7.2 per cent and August's revised 7.73 per cent print. (
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A Prasanna, economist, ICICI Securities Primary Dealership, Mumbai:
"We had expected a decelaration in food inflation, but the fall in core CPI inflation is more than anticipated."
"So inflation is on track to undershoot RBI's 8 per cent inflation target by January 2015, and the chances to reach 6 per cent target by January 2016 have improved."
"With core inflation coming off incrementally, RBI's comments on controlling inflation may get more confident. This doesn't materially change the probability of any rate cut in the near term. were poised for a sub-7 per cent number, and this number will add to the positive sentiment."
Rupa Rege Nitsure, chief economist, Bank of Baroda, Mumbai:
"The data is very favourable. The only question is about its sustainability because we know there are primarily two reasons for this kind of moderation. One, of course, is the statistical base effect. And second, there was a month-on-month significant decline in vegetable prices."
"But RBI has said they will wait for inflation to come down durably. So just going by one observation, they cannot take the final call. They will wait and see how data pans out post-November when base effect will wane. My stance remains the same, that there will be a prolonged pause on rates."
"Even if inflation print turns ugly post-November or December, given the fact that industrial activity has weakened so much, they may not increase the rates. That is why I say it will be a prolonged pause."
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